About

As part of the CANARI project (Climate change in the Arctic – North Atlantic region and impacts on the UK) a large ensemble of the HadGEM3 coupled climate model is being run, CANARI-LE. A data analysis sprint is planned for the week of March 4-8, 2024 to get a jump start on the analysis of the data being generated. This page is designed to provide details of the ensemble, information about the data and how to access, pre-event requirements, sprint, tutorials and frequently asked questions.

Highlights

Day 5

Motivated by Bablu's time series of heat fluxes over the sub polar gyre (SPG), Simon has been looking at the difference in air-sea heat from between the post-2000 period and 1970-89. The key features are the weakening of heat loss (red colors) in the SPG which is potentially linked to the weakening of the AMOC found by Adam and Niamh. Process chain would be : weaker AMOC beings less warm water northwards, reduces SST and thus surface heat loss. And secondly the increase in heat loss in the Arctic (blue) which is presumably related to sea ice decline exposing more of the ocean surface and thus enabling greater heat loss to the atmosphere.

HF

Day 4

Amulya showed results which investigated the response of precipitation to changes in the jet at the end of day highlights meeting. Here is a figure of the relationship between the JJA jet latitude (left) and the DJF jet speed and precipitation over the UK.

JET

Wilson has been looking at precipitation of the UK, which he nicely showed at the end of day highlights meeting. Here is his time series of the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) accumulated over 3 months (SPI-3)UK average compared with SPI calculated from observations (HadUK-Grid).

SPI

Paul has been busy looking at precipitation in the CANARI-LE and putting it into perspective with other LE. The figures below show the MJJAS (NDJFM) precipitation for the Northern (Southern) hemisphere (see the #sprint-highlights Slack channel for more figures).

precip bias

Laura has been looking at the relationship between the winter (DJF) NAO/EAP and 2 m temperature and precipitation. The figure below shows the results for 2 m temperature (see the #sprint-highlights Slack channel for more figures).

NAO_EAP

Day 3

First results from Claire investigating sea surface temperature in cold air outbreak regions.

CAO

More AMOC plots from Niamh, this time in depth space at 40N.

Niamh_AMOC

Here are some Adam's plots of annual mean AMOC index at 26N and 1 km depth.

Adam_AMOC

Now available, thanks to Adam, AMOC in depth and density space (/gws/nopw/j04/canari/shared/large-ensemble/derived/HIST2/ensemble num/OCN/yearly/year/).

First results from Lizzie, composite of DJF sea level pressure for strong - weak polar vortex.

polar vortex

Day 2

First results from Bablu, the surface ocean heat flux in the sub-polar gyre for all ensemble members.

spna heat flux

First results from Tony who is looking sudden stratospheric warming, the figure takes a look at the annual cycle of 10hPa U in ensemble member 1. Years with suspected SSW are highlighted in colour, others are in grey.

10 hPa U

Day 1

First results from Dan, the mean sub-polar gyre (50:65N, 0:60W) SST and upper 500 m potential temperature. With shading showing +/- 1 standard deviation. Sea Surface Temperature Upper 500 m

The sprint has begun!

Publications

Soon :)